Macro Strategy Views

Macro Strategy Views Podcast

In our podcast, Macro Strategy Views, we focus on topical macro and market themes targeting investors and trading corporates. Host Thomas Harr will discuss weekly market views, and deep dive into a selected theme together with his co-host of the week.

Macro Strategy Views: How the US election could boost the US economy and equities
Today, we discuss the US election and the implications for the economy and equities. We discuss the degree to which a united democratic government would lead to a demand boost and how this compares with a republican sweep. We discuss the implication of the election for the US’s approach to China and how we believe it will affect global equities. Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast and is joined by US economist Mikael Olai Milhøj and Senior Equity Strategist Bjarne Breinholt Thoma...

Macro Strategy Views: Hawkish Norges Bank and FAITing Riksbank
Today, we discuss why we expect Norges Bank to lift the rate path this week, signalling a full rate hike by Q2 22. We argue why, from a risk-reward perspective, it makes sense to position for higher short-end and belly rates, while any NOK strength is likely to be short lived. We also discuss whether the Fed’s FAIT has implications for the Riksbank. Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast and he is joined by Chief Strategist Kristoffer Kjær Lomholt and Chief Economist for Sweden Mi...

Macro Strategy Views: Inflation at 3% - how to get there?
Today, we discuss what could drive much higher inflation rates over coming years. We discuss a fast recovery, the Fed’s change and its influence on the ECB, monetary financing of expansionary fiscal policies and a political shift to a progressive left in the US and Germany. Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast and is joined by US economist Mikael Olai Milhøj, Euroland economist Aila Mihr and ECB economist and FI strategist Piet Christiansen....


Macro Strategy Views – Reflation, equity rotation and the impact on credit markets
Today, we discuss whether the volatility experienced in particularly equity markets late last week is set to continue. Positioning and retail involvement suggest that more is in store but the macro-drivers - vaccine developments and Fed action – for the reflation theme to continue are still very much in place. We discuss the rotation dynamics in equities and the primary market’s influence on the secondary outlook in credit. Global Head of FI&C Research, Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast and he is joined ...

Macro Strategy Views - No Nordic cliff edge after state support ends
The phasing out of COVID-19 support measures is set to affect people and companies in the Nordic countries. We discuss whether the end of support schemes will lead to higher unemployment rates and bankruptcies in the region. Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast and is joined by Chief Economist Las Olsen and Head of Scandi Strategy Arne Lohmann Rasmussen...

Macro Strategy Views: Is the reflation theme Dead?
The reflation theme has dominated financial markets in recent months, driving stocks higher, depressing credit risk premiums and weakening the USD. However, over the past week inflation expectations dipped, the USD stabilised and nominal yields drifted lower. We discuss whether the reflation theme is now dead, or whether this is just a pause before the next acceleration. Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast and he is joined by Senior FX Strategist Lars Merklin and Credit Analyst M...


Macro Strategy Views: Why equities are not expensive
The reflation theme is broadening, with higher yields and steeper curves. However, is the recent financial performance as good as it gets and how do future risks compare with current market pricing and thereby expected return? We argue that equities are not expensive and discuss the link between interest rates and equities. The vaccine and the Fed are set to drive risk premiums and returns across assets. Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast and he is joined by Senior Equity Strate...

Macro Strategy Views: Why equities are not expensive
The reflation theme is broadening, with higher yields and steeper curves. However, is the recent financial performance as good as it gets and how do future risks compare with current market pricing and thereby expected return? We argue that equities are not expensive and discuss the link between interest rates and equities. The vaccine and the Fed are set to drive risk premiums and returns across assets. Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast and he is joined by Senior Equity Strate...

Macro Strategy Views - Is it time to revisit the crisis narrative?
The market recovery is extraordinarily fast but this is also a very different crisis. The economic rebound is much faster than during previous crises, which is due to the nature of the crisis and the policy stimulus. We discuss whether it is time to change the crisis narrative and how we may think about the USD. Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast and he is joined by Chief Strategist Jens Nærvig Pedersen....


Macro Strategy Views – Cross-asset allocations and the importance of the USD
This week, we discuss a systematic framework for analysing investments, which distinguishes secular trends from tactical asset views. In our view, the USD is a key driver of asset returns, which is often overlooked. We discuss whether we are at a secular turning point for the USD and what this implies for asset performance. Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast and he is joined by Senior Analyst Kristoffer Kjær Lomholt and Senior Analyst Lars Sparresø Merklin....

Macro Strategy Views: The US Virus Risk And Nordic Outperformance
This week marked a clear worsening in the number of new COVID-19 cases in Texas, Florida and Arizona. Meanwhile, over the past month the global recovery has been faster than most people thought likely one or two months ago. The Nordics are outperforming the world, led by Norway and Denmark. We discuss the risk of a US-led virus outbreak derailing the recovery and the risk for the Nordics Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast and he is joined by Chief Analyst Allan von Mehren and C...

Macro Strategy Views: The Fed’s forward guidance and YCC – will it work?
The Fed learned the importance of explicit and aggressive forward guidance at an early stage in the GFC, tied either to specific dates or to economic outcomes. The current forward guidance is weak as it is neither explicit nor aggressive. Therefore, the Fed is eager to strengthen forward guidance. The guidance could target inflation above 2%, and involve asset purchases, the Fed funds rate and possibly yield curve control (YCC). It could cap 3Y UST yields at 0.25% with the purpose of reinforcing guidance on...


Macro Strategy Views Recovery, Reflation And Asset Rotation
The market is likely to price a higher chance of a fast recovery due to non-farm payroll, German stimulus and the ECB. We believe that investors should focus on opportunities where 1) solid fundamentals support an extension of the current rally (for example we have just lowered our target on short EUR/NOK to 10.00 from 10.50, and 2) there are catch-up opportunities, such as eurozone banking stocks where risk premiums are still elevated. We discuss the ECB, equity markets and EUR/USD. Global Head of FI&C Re...

Macro Strategy Views: The Re-emergence of the US - China technological and trade war
For the past couple of months, developments in COVID-19 have driven economies and markets. However, we are starting to see geopolitical risks returning, with US-China relations reaching a new stage following Beijing’s announcement of a new national security law in Hong Kong. We discuss the next legs in the US-China technological and trade war. Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast and he is joined by Chief Analyst Allan von Mehren....

Macro Strategy Views: Assessing equity and credit risk premiums amid crisis uncertainty
Since the dark period in March, when financial markets capitulated, volatility has eased tremendously and risky assets have rallied. The question is whether risk premiums are now too depressed, or whether the forceful actions taken by central banks in particular will extend the risk rally as recovery takes hold. We discuss equity and credit risk premiums in light of yield levels, cash flow uncertainty and Europe/US divergence. Global Head of FI&C Research, Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast and he is join...


Macro Strategy Views: Global value chains and the future of work
In our weekly Macro Strategy Views podcast, we discuss the webinar we had last week with Professor Richard Baldwin, in which we discussed globalisation and automation in light of the COVID-19 crisis. Mr Baldwin argued that globalisation will accelerate in the aftermath of the COVID-19 outbreak and that over the long run inequality will fall. We discuss the implications for inflation and the future of work. Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast and he is joined by Head of FX Resea...

Macro Strategy Views - Political disruption from the Covid-19 crisis
In our weekly Macro Strategy Views podcast, we discuss the political consequences of the crisis. The focus is shifting towards how the crisis will be more disruptive politically than most people expect. An escalation of geopolitical conflicts, such as US-China tensions, may be a trigger for a more prolonged crisis. We discuss the unstable equilibrium in the eurozone, where there are political risks that the ECB will suddenly hesitate and anti-EU sentiment on the back of the crisis. Global Head of FI&C Rese...

Macro Strategy Views Podcast: Fiscal dominance, monetary financing and the next euro crisis
In our weekly Macro Strategy Views podcast, we discuss risk sharing and fiscal dominance in the eurozone, monetary financing and the next euro crisis. The lack of risk sharing in the EU and the explosion in government debt require monetary financing. The COVID-19 crisis is a real world experiment of MMT in the eurozone and elsewhere. We outline what we expect from EU institutions and the ECB. Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast and he is joined by Chief Analyst Piet Christiansen...


Macro Strategy Views: Market volatility to ease further
In our weekly Macro Strategy Views podcast, we analyse the latest coronavirus numbers, the implications for the global economy and easing market volatility. Over the weekend, there has been improvement in both the US and Europe in terms of the virus numbers. It looks to us as though European countries outside Italy are on track for a peak early this week and the US by the end of the week. Meanwhile, we are seeing an improvement in market sentiment following very aggressive central bank easing. We expect eq...

Macro Strategy Views: A deep recession but still a chance it will be short-lived
In our weekly Macro Strategy Views podcast, we discuss the recession being extraordinarily deep and much deeper than the worst months in the global financial crisis in 2008-09. However, there is still a chance that the recession will be short-lived. The key will be (1) how the virus numbers develop and (2) the political reaction function in terms of when politicians decide to end the lockdowns. Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast and he is joined by Chief Analyst Allan Von Mehre...

Macro Strategy Views - The recession is here
In our weekly Macro Strategy Views podcast, we discuss the recession and the lack of appropriate policy responses. With the exception of the Fed, we believe policymakers in Europe and US have not reacted forcefully enough to support their economies. Near term, the expected increase in virus numbers would be a substantial hit to the global economy. We discuss the expected length of the slowdown and what we will be looking out for. Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast and he is joi...


The oil price shock and why the policy response to COVID - 19 remains inadequate
In our weekly Macro Strategy Views podcast, we discuss the price war in the oil market and the lack of an adequate policy response to the COVID-19 crisis. We believe that oil prices may fall to the January 2016 low if Saudi Arabia scales up production. The COVID-19 crisis is likely to get worse before it gets better, as the policy response remains inadequate. Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast and he is joined by Chief Analyst Allan Von Mehren and Senior Analyst Jens Nærvig Pe...

Macro Strategy Views: Policy responses and the risk of a global recession
In our weekly Macro Strategy Views podcast, we discuss the base case, best case and worst case for the global economy. We expect a sharp global slowdown near term but stabilisation and recovery later in the year. However, the risk of a global recession has increased sharply and near-term policy responses are key. Short term, risks are skewed on the downside for equities. Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast and he is joined by Chief Analyst Allan Von Mehren, Head of International...

Macro Strategy Views: FX as an asset class – why, how and implications
In our weekly Macro Strategy Views podcast, we argue that investors should treat foreign exchange as an asset class and we discuss a framework for analysing FX markets. This makes a lot of sense for, in particular, real money funds to manage currencies increasingly actively. Over the short to medium term, capital flows determine exchange rates. Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast and he is joined by Head of FX Research Christin Tuxen....


Macro Strategy Views: Why US assets remain the only game in town
In our weekly podcast, Macro Strategy Views, we discuss the outlook for the US dollar and equities. In our view, the US dollar will stay strong until the US economy enters a recession. This has important cross-asset implications, particularly for the oil price, equities and interest rates. Global Head of FI&C Research, Thomas Harr, chairs today’s podcast and he is joined by our Chief Equity Strategist, Mattias Sundling, and our cross asset strategist, Kristoffer Kjær Lomholt....

Macro Strategy Views: EUR HY credit and NOK FX to catch up following recent sell-off
In our weekly podcast, Macro Strategy Views, we discuss the outlook for respectively credit markets and Norway in light of recent events. We expect HY credit spreads to narrow further on a constructive macro backdrop and positive equity sentiment. We believe the market is too negative on Norway as the tight labour market and high wage growth will support higher short-end rates and a stronger currency. Global Head of FI&C Research, Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast and he is joined by Mark Naur, Credit St...

Macro Strategy Views: The coronavirus – V-shaped recovery and market implications
In our weekly podcast, Macro Strategy Views, we discuss the implications of the coronavirus for the Chinese economy, global economy and markets. We expect a sharp fall in Chinese data in coming months followed by recovery. Asia will be hit hard with smaller implications for Europe and US. We expect equities will stabilise over the coming months before heading higher. Global Head of FI&C Research, Thomas Harr, chairs today’s podcast and he is joined by Allan Von Mehren, China economist, Mikael Olai Milhøj,...


Macro Strategy Views podcast: The corona virus and the economic implications
In our weekly Macro Strategy Views podcast, we discuss the implications of the coronavirus for the Chinese economy, the risk of a US-Europe trade war and the market implications. In our view, the Chinese economy is likely to take a hit and GDP could be reduced by up to one percentage point near term. Europe is picking up but a Chinese slowdown and the risk of a US-Europe trade war could weigh on sentiment. Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast, while our Chief Analyst on China...

Macro Strategy Views: The global recovery and the ECB’s response
In our weekly podcast, Macro Strategy Views, we discuss the implications of the US-China trade deal, the sustainability of the global recovery and the ECB’s likely response. Europe may lose out with China buying US goods, but the improvement in the global cycle will dominate. We discuss the details of the ECB’s forward guidance and the strategic review. Global Head of FI&C Research, Thomas Harr, chairs today’s podcast while our Chief Analyst on China, Allan von Mehren, and our ECB strategist, Piet Christia...

Macro Strategy Views: Syndicated debt issuance and the implications for EUR FI markets
In our weekly podcast Macro Strategy Views, we discuss the record-high syndicated debt issuance last week, the outlook for this week and the implications for euro markets. The positive equity sentiment should support credit spreads. Bund ASW is likely to widen again, while we are constructive on periphery spreads. Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast, while our chief strategist on EUR covered and financials Sverre Holbek and our Chief Fixed Income strategist Jens Peter Sørensen j...


Macro Strategy Views: The pitfalls of the US-China trade deal
In our weekly Macro Strategy Views podcast, we discuss the details of the US-China trade deal and the implications for the global economy. In our view, there are several weaknesses in the Phase 1 trade deal, which could mitigate the uplift in confidence, manufacturing and investment. Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast, while our China and trade war expert Allan von Mehren joins him....

Macro Strategy Views: The world in 2020 - higher growth, lower performance
In our weekly podcast, Macro Strategy Views, we discuss the economic and financial performance in 2019 and the outlook for 2020. Real money funds are having a strong year, mirroring the stellar returns of financial assets. We discuss why 2020 will be more challenging despite better growth. Global Head of FI&C Research, Thomas Harr, chairs today’s podcast. He is joined by Head of FX Research, Christin Tuxen, Head of International Macro Research, Jakob Ekholdt Christensen, and ECB strategist Piet Christiansen...

Macro Strategy Views – From trade war to US-China decoupling
In our weekly Macro Strategy Views podcast, we zoom in on China and discuss the US-China trade war, US-China decoupling and the Chinese growth outlook. Head of International Macro Research Jakob Ekholdt Christensen talks to our China economist Allan von Mehren, who has just returned from a trip to China collecting fresh impressions on these topics....


Macro Strategy Views – From trade war to US-China decoupling
In our weekly Macro Strategy Views podcast, we zoom in on China and discuss the US-China trade war, US-China decoupling and the Chinese growth outlook. Head of International Macro Research Jakob Ekholdt Christensen talks to our China economist Allan von Mehren, who has just returned from a trip to China collecting fresh impressions on these topics....

Macro Strategy Views – Cross-asset rotation and implications for currencies
In our weekly Macro Strategy Views podcast we discuss the FX winners and losers from cross-asset rotation. We discuss the importance of equity and fixed income flows for the broad USD and the implications for Scandi currencies. Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast, while our Head of FX Research Christin Tuxen joins him...

Macro Strategy Views Podcast: From reduction of tail risk to cyclical upturn
In our weekly Macro Strategy Views podcast, we discuss the drivers of the cross-asset rotation with higher equity prices and higher yields. The first leg higher was driven by the reduction of tail risk related to trade war and Brexit in addition to stretched risk premiums. Whether the trend extends will depend on the economic cycle. We discuss the outlook for the cycle and asset implications. Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast, while Head of International Macro Research Jakob E...


Macro Strategy Views Podcast: From reduction of tail risk to cyclical upturn
In our weekly Macro Strategy Views podcast, we discuss the drivers of the cross-asset rotation with higher equity prices and higher yields. The first leg higher was driven by the reduction of tail risk related to trade war and Brexit in addition to stretched risk premiums. Whether the trend extends will depend on the economic cycle. We discuss the outlook for the cycle and asset implications. Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast, while Head of International Macro Research Jakob E...

Macro Strategy Views - Is the uptick in yields sustainable - and what is going on with the NOK?
In this week’s edition of Macro Strategy Views, we ask whether the recent rise in yields is sustainable. Some of the reasons behind the uptick – notably markets having second thoughts regarding the ECB’s commitment to easing - lead our fixed-income strategists to stress the risk of another dip in, notably, bund rates. This said, the introduction of tiering last week went smoothly and it is now up to new ECB Chair Christine Lagarde to show the way ahead. Finally, we also look at what has - and will - drive S...

Macro Strategy Views Podcast: Cross asset rotation and the reversal yield
In our weekly podcast, Macro Strategy Views, we discuss the rotation in asset performance and the silent change in central banks’ reaction function. Since early September, equities and in particular European bank stocks have outperformed fixed income. This partly reflects geopolitics. However, the concerns about the reversal yield raised by some central banks have lifted short-term yields and banking stocks. Global Head of FI&C Research, Thomas Harr, chairs today’s podcast while our Equity Strategist, Bjar...


Macro Strategy Views Podcast: Why Riksbank will postpone rate hike
In our weekly podcast, Macro Strategy Views, we discuss the Riksbank and the ECB meetings this week. We believe the Riksbank will postpone the planned rate hike in December due to low inflation and falling inflation expectations. With regards to the ECB meeting, the focus will be on the recent public disagreement in the Governing Council. Global Head of FI&C Research, Thomas Harr, chairs today’s podcast while our Chief Economist in Sweden, Michael Grahn, and our ECB strategist, Piet Christiansen, join him...

Macro Strategy Views Podcast: Brexit and trade deal optimism to fade in markets
In our weekly podcast, Macro Strategy Views, we discuss the recent developments regarding Brexit and the US-China trade deal. We still believe that a Brexit extension and a snap election are the most likely outcome, while the US-China trade deal is not a game changer. Last week’s geopolitical rally in markets is likely to fade this week. Global Head of FI&C Research, Thomas Harr, chairs today’s podcast. Our UK and US economist, Mikael Olai Milhøj, joins him....


Macro Strategy Views Podcast: Weak global growth amid geopolitical risks
In our weekly podcast, Macro Strategy Views, we reflect on the weak underlying global macroeconomic momentum and the possible impact from two key current geopolitical risk factors: the US-China trade war and tensions in the Middle East. Head of International Macro and Emerging Market Research, Jakob Ekholdt Christensen, chairs today's podcast while our China Economist, Allan Von Mehren, joins him....

Macro Strategy Views Podcast: Fiscal policy is now the only game in town
In our weekly podcast, Macro Strategy Views, we reflect on the ECB’s policy meeting last week and discuss Norges Bank’s meeting this week. We discuss the ECB’s silent acknowledgement that monetary policy has run its course and why the easing would have limited impact. We preview the Norges Bank meeting on Thursday – why we think it will hike and its guidance further out. Global Head of FI&C Research, Thomas Harr, chairs today’s podcast while our ECB strategist, Piet Christiansen, and our Chief Economist in ...


Macro Strategy Views Podcast: Why ECB’s policy easing would not help
In our weekly Macro Strategy Views podcast, we discuss the ECB’s policy meeting later this week, in terms of what it is likely to do, what it implies for markets and whether it will actually succeed in lifting growth and inflation. Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast, while our ECB strategist Piet Christiansen and our Euroland economist Aila Mihr join him....

Macro Strategy Views Podcast: Riksbank set to support a weaker SEK, steeper curves
In our podcast Macro Strategy Views, we discuss the weakening Swedish economy, the Riksbank meeting this week and the market implications. Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast, while our Chief Economist in Sweden Michael Grahn joins him. Domestic demand is weakening in Sweden, the labour market is showing clear signs of softness and inflation expectations are falling. We expect the Riksbank to roll its forward guidance this week ahead of the ECB and cut rates in February. We dis...

Macro Strategy Views Podcast: Lower equities, higher volatility on trade war escalation
In our Macro Strategy Views podcast, we discuss Friday’s escalation in the US-China trade war and the implications for markets, with a particular focus on equities. Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast, while our Chief Equity Strategist Mattias Sundling joins him Donald Trump’s action on Friday marks a significant escalation of the trade war and raises the risk of an all-out economic war between the US and China. We expect equities to fall and volatility to rise. In our view, th...


Macro Strategy Views Podcast: Why Germany should ease fiscal policy
In our Macro Strategy Views podcast, we discuss the arguments for why Germany should ease fiscal policy. Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast and our Chief Economist in Denmark Las Olsen joins him We discuss the arguments for German fiscal stimulus: cyclically, a secular decline in interest rates, to lift the neutral rate, and support short- and long-term growth. In our view, it may be some time before policymakers act. We believe the market would like to see more concrete eviden...

Macro Strategy Views Podcast: Slowdown set to worsen, yields set to fall further
In our podcast, Macro Strategy Views, we discuss the depth of the global slowdown, recession risks and implications for yields. Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast, while our China economist Allan von Mehren and our head of FI Research Arne Lohmann Rasmussen join him. We expect the global economic cycle to worsen in coming months but a recession is still not our base case. We expect the worsening global economy to put further downward pressure on US and core euro yields. A ‘buy...

Macro Strategy Views Podcast: The central bank game changer - the winners and losers
In our podcast, Macro Strategy Views, we discuss whether central bank actions will be successful in driving the global economy and financial markets, and the implications for Scandinavia. Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast while our US analyst, Mikael Olai Milhøj, our ECB analyst, Piet Christiansen, and our Scandi strategist, Kristoffer Kjær Lomholt, join him. The Fed is likely to deliver, which would support the domestic part of the US economy, weaken the US dollar and put mo...


Macro Strategy Views Podcast: The Fed-ECB divergence and what it means for markets
In our podcast, Macro Strategy Views, we discuss the global outlook, Fed-ECB divergence and what it means for markets. Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast while Head of International Macro Research Jakob Ekholdt Christensen and Senior Analyst Lars Sparresø Merklin join him. The global economy is set to weaken in the coming months, but we expect the Fed easing to mitigate the slowdown. We expect global equity markets to head lower near term, as risks are rising, while rewards ar...

Macro Strategy Views Podcast: The global slowdown and what it means for markets
In our weekly Macro Strategy Views podcast, we discuss the imminent global slowdown, what it implies for the eurozone and the consequences for markets. Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast. He is joined by Chief Analyst Allan Von Mehren, Chief Economist Las Olsen and Senior Analyst Jens Nærvig Pedersen. The escalation of the trade war is a game changer for the global economy. We expect the Chinese cycle to turn lower with spillover to the eurozone and the US. We discuss other fac...

Macro Strategy Views: Trade talks breakdown
In our weekly podcast, Macro Strategy Views, we try to make sense of the recent escalation in the global trade war. Senior Analyst in FX Strategy Jens Nærvig Pedersen chairs the podcast and Chief China Analyst Allan von Mehren and Senior Analyst Lars Merklin join him. The escalation in the global trade war is not due to tactics on the US side. It represents a real breakdown in talks. The decline in USD/JPY and rise in implied volatility made headlines in FX markets. The market had become too optimistic on ...


Macro Strategy Views Podcast: The future of Europe – Why reforms are so hard
In our weekly podcast, Macro Strategy Views, we discuss the prospects for European reforms in light of the European election. Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast and Senior Analyst Piet Christiansen and Senior Analyst Aila Mihr join him. The fiscal rules are too pro-cyclical, complicated and are not working properly. We are pessimistic that a European Deposit Insurance Scheme and a fiscal stabilisation function within the EU will happen. Hence, we believe the sovereign-bank doom...

Macro Strategy Views Podcast: The risk of a global recession
In our weekly podcast, Macro Strategy Views, we discuss the risk of a global recession and put it in the context of the current cyclical outlook. Global Head of FI&C Research, Thomas Harr, chairs today’s podcast and he is joined by Chief Analyst Allan von Mehren and Senior Analyst Jens Nærvig Pedersen. There is a good chance that global and eurozone growth will improve in coming quarters led by China, but it is likely to be a modest cyclical recovery. Over the coming years, there is a considerable risk o...

Macro Strategy Views Podcast: why Scandinavia is not the Eurozone
In our weekly podcast, Macro Strategy Views, we discuss the similarities and differences between the Scandinavian countries and the eurozone in terms of the outlook for interest rates. Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast and he is joined by our Chief Economist in Denmark Las Olsen, our DKK strategist Jens Nærvig Pedersen and our Scandi strategist Kristoffer Kjær Lomholt. Demographics, higher inflation and better trend growth suggest that Norwegian rates will be above eurozone...


Macro Strategy Views Podcast: Why Europe is not Japan
In our weekly podcast, Macro Strategy Views, we discuss the similarities and differences between the eurozone and Japan in terms of the outlook for interest rates. Global Head of FI&C Research, Thomas Harr, chairs today’s podcast while our eurozone economist, Aila Mihr, joins him. Both the eurozone and Japan acted too timidly in their crises in terms of monetary policy and banking sector clean up and some countries, e.g. Italy, look much worse than Japan. However, low inflation appears to have become less...

Macro Strategy Views Podcast: Brexit uncertainty to rise in coming months
In our weekly podcast, Macro Strategy Views, we discuss Brexit, what it implies for the UK economy and markets and the consequences for Europe. Global Head of FI&C Research, Thomas Harr, chairs today’s podcast while our UK economist, Mikael Olai Milhøj, joins him. We expect the UK parliament to vote in favour of a two to three month extension of Article 50 this week. The markets have run ahead of themselves in terms of pricing out Brexit risk and are prone to be disappointed in the coming week. Brexit is n...

Macro Strategy Views: How the Fed and China drive global inflation and what it means for Sweden
In our weekly podcast, Macro Strategy Views, we discuss the drivers of global inflation and the implications for Sweden. Thomas Harr, Global Head of FI&C Research, chairs today’s podcast while our Chief Economist in Sweden, Michael Grahn, joins him. The Fed's substantial dovish policy shift has lifted marked-based inflation expectations in the US, which might help anchor global inflation expectations. China remains a deflationary force for global inflation, but there are signs that it could turn soon. We d...


Macro Strategy Views Podcast: How China rules the world economy and implications for equity markets
In our weekly podcast, Macro Strategy Views, we discuss China’s stimulus, the challenges of the eurozone and the implications for equity markets. Our Global Head of FI&C Research chairs today’s podcast while our Chief Equity Strategist, Mattias Sundling, joins him. China is now leading the global industrial cycle, with the Eurozone and Scandinavia more closely linked to China than the US. We expect the Chinese economy to recover in coming months and discuss what this means for the eurozone and equity mark...

Macro Strategy Views Podcast: The strong returns of 2019 and why this may change
In our weekly podcast, Macro Strategy Views, we discuss year-to-date performance in financial markets and why this may change. Thomas Harr, Global Head of FI&C Research, chairs today’s podcast while our Scandi Strategist, Kristoffer Kjær Lomholt, joins him. We discuss why equity markets could turn more volatile in coming weeks given the risks of near-term negative news flows regarding the trade negotiations, combined with a still weak global cycle. The macro divergence between Norway and Sweden has further...

Macro Strategy Views Podcast: why financial markets ignore political uncertainty
In our weekly podcast, Macro Strategy Views, we discuss why elevated political uncertainty is not translating into higher financial market volatility and what the future might look like. Thomas Harr, Global Head of FI&C Research, chairs today’s podcast while our UK and US economist, Mikael Olai Milhøj, joins him. During January, most market-based measures of financial market volatility collapsed, while estimates of political uncertainty were at record levels. Since 2011/12, market volatility has decoupled...


Macro Strategy Views Podcast: Brexit, trade war and policy responses
In our weekly podcast, Macro Strategy Views, we discuss Brexit, the trade war and policy responses if the global economy weakens further. Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast, with our UK economist Mikael Olai Milhøj and China economist Allan von Mehren joining him. The week is set to be very interesting with respect to both Brexit and the US-China trade war. We discuss what we can expect this week and from future negotiations. We remain optimistic that a no-deal Brexit will be ...

Macro Strategy Views Podcast: What if we are wrong – risks for 2019
In our weekly podcast Macro Strategy Views, we discuss risks to the global economy and the financial system in 2019. Thomas Harr, Global Head of FI&C Research, chairs today’s podcast and our Chief Economist in Denmark Las Olsen joins him. We expect the world economy to pick up speed from Q2 onwards but our call hinges on several assumptions. What if we are wrong? How bad could it be? We discuss risks with respect to trade wars, high-debt/low-growth worries in Italy and France and the Nordic housing markets....

Macro Strategy Views: Many trading opportunities in the Scandinavian fixed income market
In our weekly podcast, Macro Strategy Views, we focus today on the European and Scandinavian fixed income markets. Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, Head of Fixed Income Research, chairs today’s podcast and our Chief Fixed Income Analyst Jens Peter Sørensen joins him. The main focus today is the Scandinavian fixed income markets. The new Swedish government will have little financial impact on the Swedish markets. Focus is still on Riksbank news and the benign inflation outlook, both of which point to value in the Sw...


Macro Strategy Views Podcast: Market turmoil, slowdown and the outlook for equities
In our weekly podcast, Macro Strategy Views, we focus on the recent turmoil in financial markets, what it says about the economy and how the future looks. Thomas Harr, Global Head of FI&C Research, chairs today’s podcast and our Senior Equity Strategist, Bjarne Breinholt Thomsen, joins him. The markets do not expect an imminent US recession but clearly a slowdown. We expect the manufacturing/export part of the US economy to slow further but the domestic economy to hold up well. Equities are key and we ma...

Macro Strategy Views Podcast: The world in 2019 - slower growth, higher inflation
In our weekly podcast Macro Strategy Views, we focus on topical macro and market themes targeting investors and trading corporates. Today, we focus on our outlook for 2019, with a particular focus on the US, Europe and Scandinavia. Thomas Harr, Global Head of FI&C Research, chairs today’s podcast and our Head of International Macro and Emerging Market Research, Jakob Ekholdt Christensen, joins him. Global growth is set to slow next year, led by the USD. However, core inflation in the eurozone is set to h...

Macro Strategy Views Podcast: The US-China trade deal – what, why and when
In our weekly podcast, Macro Strategy Views, we focus on topical macro and market themes targeting investors and trading corporates. Today, we focus on the US-China trade agreement and the way forward. Thomas Harr, Global Head of FI&C Research, chairs today’s podcast and our Chief Analyst and China expert Allan Von Mehren joins him. On Saturday night, US President Donald Trump and China President Xi Jinping reached an agreement on future trade talks. We discuss in detail what the next steps are in the neg...


Macro Strategy Views Podcast: Risk premiums to rise as liquidity tightens, growth slows
In our weekly podcast, Macro Strategy Views, we focus on topical macro and market themes targeting investors and trading corporates. Today, we focus on risk premiums across asset classes with a special focus on the credit market. Thomas Harr, Global Head of FI&C Research, chairs today’s podcast and our Senior Credit Strategist, Gabriel Bergin, joins him. In recent months, risk premiums across asset classes have shot up while risk premiums in currency markets have fallen back. We discuss in detail the mark...

Macro Strategy Views Podcast: A deal is still likely despite the UK’s house of cards
In our weekly podcast, Macro Strategy Views, we focus on topical macro and market themes targeting investors and trading corporates. Today, we focus on Brexit. Thomas Harr, Global Head of FI&C Research, chairs today’s podcast and our UK economist Mikael Olai Milhøj joins him. In today’s podcast, we focus on the contents of the withdrawal agreement and the likelihood of a deal. The biggest risks to a deal are a no-confidence vote against Theresa May and the vote in the House of Commons. We discuss these r...

Macro Strategy Views Podcast: after the US midterm elections — what now Trump?
In our weekly podcast, Macro Strategy Views, we focus on topical macro and market themes targeting investors and trading corporates. Today, we look at the US midterm elections and what they will mean for the US and the global economy. Jakob Ekholdt Christensen, Head of International Macro and Emerging Market Research, chairs today’s podcast and our US economist, Mikael Milhøj, joins him. In the podcast, we go into depth on the US midterm elections and their implications for the US economy, the risk of impea...


Macro Strategy Views Podcast: The poor returns of 2018 and why this may change
In our weekly podcast, Macro Strategy Views, we focus on topical macro and market themes targeting investors and trading corporates. Today, we focus on the poor returns of 2018 and why this may change. Thomas Harr, Global Head of FI&C Research, chairs today’s podcast and our Chief Fixed Income Strategist, Jens Peter Sørensen joins him. In today’s podcast we discuss late-cycle trends and performance across asset classes. 2018 is proving to be the worst performing year since the global financial crisis in ...

Macro Strategy Views Podcast: growth slowdown, central bank responses and equity outlook
In our weekly podcast, Macro Strategy Views, we focus on topical macro and market themes, targeting investors and trading corporates. Today, we focus on the slowdown in growth, central banks and, in particular, equity markets. Thomas Harr, Global Head of FI&C Research, chairs today’s podcast and our Senior Equity Strategist, Bjarne Breinholt Thomsen, joins him. Growth worries are pushing equities lower. Moreover, central banks are unlikely to come to the rescue as they are committed to normalising monetary...

Macro Strategy Views Podcast: The shocks and the risks – Italy could dwarf Brexit
In our weekly podcast, Macro Strategy Views, we focus on topical macro and market themes targeting investors and trading corporates. Today, we focus on the current shocks and the future risks facing the global economy and financial system with a special focus on Italy. Thomas Harr, Global Head of FI&C Research, chairs today’s podcast and our eurozone economist, Aila Mihr, joins him. We expect the EU will give a negative opinion and ask for a revision of the budget, possibly as early as this week. Eventuall...


Macro Strategy Views podcast: The stock market rout to fade despite looming Italy-EU clash
In our weekly podcast Macro Strategy Views, we focus on topical macro and market themes targeting investors and trading corporates. Today, we focus on the stock market rout. Thomas Harr, Global Head of FI&C Research, chairs today’s podcast and our Chief Equity Strategist Mattias Sundling joins him. Italian debt worries and rising US interest rates have driven the sell-off. We expect the former to stay with us for a while, with the latter fading in importance. We believe equity markets will continue to be c...

Macro Strategy Views Podcast: The shocks and the Nordics
In our weekly podcast Macro Strategy Views, we focus on topical macro and market themes targeting investors and trading corporates. Today, we focus on US interest rates, Italy and oil prices. We discuss how these shocks influence our views on the Nordics. Thomas Harr Global Head of FI&C Research chairs today’s podcast and our Head of FX Research Christin Kyrme Tuxen joins him. In our view, the US fiscal stimulus’s positive impact on growth will be as significant in FY 2019 as it has been in 2018. If we do...

Macro Strategy Views Podcast: The happy days are over for Italy
In our weekly podcast, Macro Strategy Views, we focus on topical macro and market themes targeting investors and trading corporates. Today, we focus on Italy and ECB forward guidance. Thomas Harr, Global Head of FI&C Research, chairs today’s podcast and our eurozone economist, Piet P.H. Christiansen, joins him. There are several worrying issues with the Italian budget, but the devil is in the detail. We expect Italian debt to be volatile at least until 15 October, when we should get more clarity on the budg...


Macro Strategy Views Podcast: Brexit and the Nordics – with or without a deal
In our weekly podcast, Macro Strategy Views, we focus on topical macro and market themes targeting investors and trading corporates. Today, we focus on Brexit, including the implications for Nordic economies and markets. Thomas Harr, Global Head of FI&C Research, chairs today’s podcast and our UK economist, Mikael Olai Milhøj, joins him. We judge that there is a 75% chance of a ‘decent’ Brexit but 15% risk of a cliff-edge Brexit. A cliff-edge Brexit could have significant implications for the Danish agri...

Macro Strategy Views Podcast: Inflation – The Force Awakens
In our weekly podcast, Macro Strategy Views, we focus on topical macro and market themes targeting investors and trading corporates. Today, we focus on inflation and central banks in Norway and Sweden. Thomas Harr, Global Head of FI&C Research, chairs today’s podcast and our Chief Economist in Norway, Frank Jullum, joins him. We expect Norges Bank to hike rates by 25bp to 75bp on Thursday and we think the central bank will lift the rate path substantially. We expect the NOK and short-term interest rates t...

Macro Strategy Views Podcast – Italy: enjoy it while it lasts
In our weekly podcast, Macro Strategy Views, we focus on topical macro and market themes targeting investors and trading corporates. Today, we focus on Italy. Thomas Harr, Global Head of FI&C Research, chairs today’s podcast and our Euroland economist Aila Mihr joins him. There is currently a three-party power play going on in the Italian government. The 2019 budget deficit is likely to end up at 1.9-2.4% of GDP. It is very unlikely that the deficit will break the EU’s 3% rule. Italian debt is likely to p...